Op-Ed: Another $7B bill for Vermont’s taxpayers?

August 7, 2024  |  By Emerson Lynn  |  Saint Albans Messenger

In 2023, the Vermont Legislature passed Act 18 – the Clean Heat Standard – as a crucial step to meet the goals set by the Global Warming Solutions Act in 2020. Its purpose was to focus on how best for Vermont’s homeowners, and businesses to transition to heating solutions that produce fewer emissions. The law required the Public Utility Commission to design a marketplace that would require fuel dealers to work with their customers to move away from their traditional heating procedures to something more efficient.

It is an important yet highly complicated process that will require a change in human behavior for it to be successful. It will also require a significant investment. When legislators were debating the bill Vermont Agency of Natural Resources Commissioner Julie Moore suggested it might be a good idea to get a rough idea of how much that “investment” might be. She made a back-of-the-envelope estimation of $2 billion between 2026 and 2030.

Ms. Moore was criticized by the bill’s supporters as being unduly alarmist. Besides, the law also required the Public Utility Commission to submit its own cost estimate to the Legislature by January 2025. No need to worry.

Well, the commission’s hired consultant – NV5 – gave a preliminary view of its findings last week. The estimated cost between 2026 and 2030 was roughly $7 billion, more than triple Ms. Moore’s estimation. The total cost between 2026 and 2050 is an estimated $17 billion. As NV5 noted, the final figures may be different, but it’s likely they will be in the same ballpark when the final report is issued in late August.

Few question the need to reduce emissions, and few expected the new law to be completed without the public’s “investment” at one level or another.

But $7 billion over the next five years? That should make for an interesting legislative hearing.

More appropriate, it should be a question voters ask their representatives before the November election. The question about the $7 billion also taps into the question we asked last week: If the Global Warming Solutions Act allows anyone to sue the state if they feel the law’s requirements aren’t being met, can the state be sued if they retreat from the Clean Heat Standard law? Would the Legislature have to rewrite both laws to be free of the legal threat?

This concern goes beyond the estimated $7 billion cost to rejigger the way we heat our homes. We have a tendency to look at one set of costs in isolation when, in fact, we have so much more coming our way. The seven billion dollar figure for reduced emissions is just about the same dollar figure that has been placed on the deferred maintenance needs faced by our schools [a quarter billion dollars of that amount is needed immediately.] We are also in the process of figuring out a better way to pay for our schools, and if a better way is found, it’s still a safe bet that next year’s property tax bill will be higher than this year’s. Affordable housing remains a crucial unmet need and health insurance premiums continue to soar.

Is anyone feeling good about our prospects?

When legislators return in January they will find the competition for resources to be fierce; obviously, the demand far exceeds the supply. Success will depend on which special interest has the most compelling narrative. 

That’s a frightening prospect for Vermont’s taxpayers. Who has their backs?

Emerson Lynn is editor emeritus of the Saint Albans Messenger newspaper. This opinion piece was published originally in the Messenger on July 30.