Howard Dean visits Waterbury to pass on another run for governor
May 25, 2024 | By Lisa Scagliotti For a brief few weeks this spring, Vermont political watchers perked up at the prospect of former Vermont Democratic Gov. Howard Dean returning to electoral politics to challenge Republican Gov. Phil Scott in this year’s election.
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean announces his plan not to run for office this year in the Steele Community Room at the Waterbury municipal offices on May 20. Photo by Gordon Miller
On Monday, Dean chose Waterbury as the spot to announce that he will not be a candidate despite efforts by supporters to gather signatures on petitions and start raising money for him to file and launch a campaign.
But Dean said polling tells him that the popular Republican governor looking toward a fifth term is essentially unbeatable without resorting to “a scorched-earth negative attack campaign like ones being run all over the country.”
Dean said his research showed that he could get within 10 percentage points of Scott, but attempting to close that gap would come at a political price of going negative. “I don’t know if a campaign like that could get me elected, but I do know that it would be really harmful to our state and our values,” he said.
Dean spoke to reporters from Vermont news outlets in the Steele Community Room at the Waterbury town offices on Monday. He said he chose the location offering Waterbury as an example of a resilient community facing struggles common across Vermont today.
“I’m in Waterbury today because this is a town that has endured more than its share of the woes of the 21st century. This is a town that’s seen three 100-year floods in the last 15 years, a town that has a housing shortage which makes it nearly impossible to live here if you work here, and a school financing system which leaves this reasonably prosperous town facing its third vote to pass a school budget,” he told reporters.
Yet despite his experience, his professed love for campaigning (he described himself as an “indefatigable” campaigner), and the opportunity to have a hand once again in making government policy, Dean remains on the sidelines. “I am not a candidate for the office of governor,” he said.
Dean’s run as Vermont’s longest-serving governor began in August 1991 when he was juggling the roles of practicing physician and his third term as lieutenant governor. That quickly changed when then-Gov. Richard Snelling died at home after a heart attack. Dean went on to be elected governor for five consecutive full terms. The Burlington Democrat entered politics in 1986 as a state representative and served two terms in the Vermont House. After leaving office in Vermont, Dean ran for U.S. President in 2004 and later served as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
Howard Dean speaks to reporters in the Steele Community Room at the Waterbury municipal offices on Monday. Photo by Gordon Miller
Another Vermont political veteran with 10 years in the state Senate and three terms as lieutenant governor, Scott made his intentions to run for re-election this year official on May 11. He shared his announcement on social media with a photo of him seated beside longtime former Democratic state Sen. Dick Mazza who was Scott’s mentor when he joined the state Senate. The 84-year-old Grand Isle Democrat held the role of dean of the Senate until his resignation in April due to declining health.
A moderate Republican known for his camaraderie with Democrats and independents, Scott enjoys wide popularity across the political spectrum. He handily won re-election in 2022 with 71% of the vote. A recent national poll by Morning Consult pegged him as the country’s most popular governor.
Gov. Phil Scott posted this photo on May 22 taken at the Vermont Secretary of State’s office where he filed his petition to run for re-election. Courtesy photo
In late April, WCAX first reported that Dean was considering a bid for his former job. Dean said he was motivated by watching Scott and state lawmakers early in the legislative session. “I loved being governor. I thought there ought to be a more cooperative relationship,” he said. “I think the tipping point was when I saw the governor bad-mouthing the legislature and telling them it was their job to come up with a solution to the property tax problem. It’s not their job. It’s the governor’s job to come up with a solution and sell it to the legislature.”
Dean had much praise for state lawmakers during his Monday morning press conference. “This is not popular among the public, but I love the legislature. They are really smart, really hardworking, and they have their fingers on issues that nobody else dared tackle for a long time either because they didn’t want to or they didn’t know anything about them,” Dean said, pointing to legislation to expand child care and address the impacts of climate change as examples.
Other top issues for Vermonters that Dean said he gleaned from his polling research are housing and health care. “My polling shows that I can get to within 10 points of Gov. Scott because of my own fiscal record and because of my deep commitment to affordable health care,” Dean said.
Still, the prospect of taking on a race against a popular incumbent – even with a relatively short campaign cycle – would be demanding and expensive. Dean estimated that both he and Scott would likely spend $2 million each in a head-to-head contest and the commitment would mean missing out on spending time over the summer with grandchildren in California and Pennsylvania.
The decision mostly came down to two factors, Dean said – the desire to avoid a bruising negative campaign, and a nagging belief that it’s time for a new generation to lead Vermont.
Dean looked back on his time in office and ahead to the future elections where he hopes younger Democratic candidates will take the lead. Photo by Gordon Miller
“Being governor is a great job. It's fun,” Dean said. “That was really, really attractive. What was really not attractive was the idea that I was going to run negative ads. It’s sort of not the Vermont way. And I was not going to the one who made it the Vermont way.”
Reporters pressed Dean asking why a race between two experienced and seasoned candidates couldn’t focus on issues and policy differences. “People don’t vote on policy. They vote on connection to other human beings,” Dean said.
Just pointing out differences, Dean said, is not the way to win. “I’m not interested in doing this for the debate. I’m interested in winning,” he explained.
“I used to run the Democratic National Committee and that is basically a sumo wrestling job without a ring – you just go at it until somebody drops dead. I don’t want to bring that to Vermont, and I didn’t trust myself with three weeks to go to be nice and civil if I thought that a couple of bad ads would put me in front.”
Now 75, Dean admitted that he would prefer to see younger candidates seeking the governor’s office. He pointed to Vermont’s other statewide office-holders, predicting that “someday one of them will be governor.”
Dean’s announcement came just 10 days before the filing deadline for the 2024 election cycle. The state primary is Aug. 13. Asked if news that he was considering a run for governor might have dissuaded others from getting into the race, Dean said he spoke with other potential candidates before exploring his own bid with the intention to defer and not create a primary contest if someone else was planning to run. “I talked to all the people who I thought would be viable candidates and none of them wanted to do it,” he said.
In response to reporters’ questions, several names of potential Democratic contenders came up including former Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger and state Treasurer Mike Pieciak. Dean said he didn’t want to speak for anyone else, but Pieciak has announced that he is running for re-election and Weinberger confirmed this week with Vermont news media that he is not running for any office this year.
Dean was asked if, given his odds in a match-up with Scott, he thinks any Vermont Democrat has a chance of unseating the popular Republican, or will a change in the governorship only come when Scott decides to step down?
“Sooner or later your shelf life expires,” Dean replied. “Mine expired because of civil unions and I wasn’t the least bit sorry. If you cut me down to a core, it’s about human rights … and it was the first marriage equality law of its kind in the country. So that was that was my expiration date.”
Dean was referring to the 2000 landmark Vermont law that created civil unions for same-sex couples, legislation that preceded gay marriage in the United States. The public debate surrounding the bill and reaction once Dean signed the measure was heated and divisive across Vermont.
“That was a scorched-earth campaign,” Dean reflected. He recalled how in the 2000 election Democrats lost control of the legislature and he won his fifth term as governor with just “123 votes over 50%.” In 2002, Dean did not seek re-election.
Poa Mutino, independent candidate for Vermont governor, outside Montpelier City Hall earlier this month serving pancakes and collecting signatures for his candidacy petition. Courtesy photo
One surprise moment during Dean’s press conference came when he called on an audience member seated behind the television cameras in the Steele room. “Hi, my name is Poa Mutino and I am running for governor and it’s a pleasure to meet you and listen to you speak. I agree with everything you’re saying,” the young man said to Dean.
A Barre resident, Mutino said he has “talked to hundreds of Vermonters” in the process of getting signatures to get on the ballot for governor. “Currently I’m running as an independent, but I’m not averse to running as a different party,” he said. “I’m a clinical social worker and I think I can be the change you’re talking about – the new face of governorship.”
Mutino said he’s 34 years old and has followed politics in Florida where he earned a master’s degree and in New York where he grew up. He currently oversees the Meals on Wheels and senior meals programs in Montpelier, he said. In a brief interview after the press conference, Mutino said his priorities are focusing on freeing people from poverty, providing mental health care for all, and “more of a state of love and belonging.” He said he plans a busy campaign. “I will be running all summer to get Vermonters to know me,” he said.
Outside the Waterbury municipal offices Monday morning, state Rep. Tom Stevens, D-Waterbury, chats with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. Photo by Gordon Miller
Dean’s announcement attracted a small audience of local residents and staff from the municipal offices and library including Waterbury state Rep. Tom Stevens, an eight-term term lawmaker. Both Stevens and Waterbury’s other Democratic state Rep. Theresa Wood have announced that they will run for re-election this year.
Asked about Dean considering and then backing off from making a political comeback, Stevens said, “As a Democrat, I’m disappointed.”
Stevens didn’t disagree with Dean’s conclusion, however, that it will be difficult for any candidate to unseat a popular incumbent in a short campaign season. He said he thought an experienced candidate such as Dean would have the best chance. But he also pointed out that Gov. Scott’s popularity extends well beyond Republican voters. “Vermont Democrats elect Gov. Scott,” he said. “That has to change.”
Dean said he sees deep talent and potential in a generation of Democratic leaders younger than himself and 65-year-old Scott. “I do not consider the Democratic Party to be in bad shape at all. We control every office except for that one that happens to be a very important office,” he said.
A Dean supporter who declined to share his name said he traveled from Barre to hear the former governor’s announcement in Waterbury. He said his dad had saved the sign. “I thought I was coming for a different announcement,” he said. Photo by Gordon Miller
So far, the only Democratic candidate interested in getting on the ballot is former Middlebury Selectboard member Esther Charlestin who has never run for statewide office before. In a phone interview after Dean’s press conference, Vermont Democratic Party Executive Director Jim Dandeneau said he is expecting Charlestin to run in what no doubt will be a “very, very difficult race” for a newcomer with a mere five months before the general election. “She’s sharp. She’s passionate,” Dandeneau said. “The problem is scale.”
As of May 24, Charleston had not yet filed a petition with the Secretary of State’s office. (Scott was the only candidate for governor who has filed, according to the Secretary of State’s website.) Dandeneau said he was not expecting to see any other Democrats enter the governor’s race which would trigger a primary contest.
Dean at the start of his press conference thanked Dandeneau and Mary Sullivan, a former Burlington state representative and longtime supporter who attended the Waterbury event, for work collecting petition signatures for him had he decided to run. Dandeneau called Monday’s announcement “a glimpse of what might have been.”