State, local data show discrepancies in COVID-19 cases in Vermont schools

Dec. 3, 2021  |  By Peter D'Auria  |  VTDigger.org

Editor’s note: This story is republished with permission from VTDigger.org.

Since the beginning of the school year, officials at Twinfield Union School have recorded 17 cases of COVID-19.

The Plainfield pre-K-12 school has never canceled classes over COVID, Twinfield Principal Mark Mooney said, but students in multiple grades have had to stay home and quarantine. 

“I’d say four or five times we’ve had to send a grade level of kids home,” Mooney said. 

However, data compiled by the Vermont Department of Health shows a different picture. According to the state’s list of COVID cases in schools, only seven cases have occurred at Twinfield. 

The discrepancies at Twinfield are part of a pattern affecting a number of districts around the state. It’s unclear exactly how many districts and schools are affected, but VTDigger identified a half-dozen districts in which state data did not line up with that reported at schools. 

“It is true that our actual numbers for COVID-positive cases have never matched the (state’s),” Brigid Nease, superintendent of the Harwood Union school district, said in an email. “I don’t know why.”

In theory, school and state officials are all recording the same data: known cases in which a student (or teacher, administrator, parent or staff member) was in a school setting while infectious. 

As of Nov. 29, the Vermont Department of Health has recorded 2,244 cases in schools since the school year began three months ago. But, across the six districts with discrepancies identified by VTDigger, almost all schools (with some exceptions) recorded more cases than the state.

Patsy Kelso, an epidemiologist with the Vermont Department of Health, said in an interview that schools are likely experiencing more cases than state data shows. 

“I can’t speak to the volume of the discrepancy, because I honestly don’t know,” she said. “But certainly I think it’s fair to say that schools are probably aware of more cases, and situations where people were in school while infectious, than we’re able to capture in our data.”

Kelso attributed the discrepancies to a number of factors. For one thing, the state’s data is updated only once a week, she noted, while some schools may update more frequently. 

Another reason could be that parents may be more likely to cooperate with schools than with state officials. 

When someone tests positive for COVID-19, state health department officials seek to interview that person (or their parent or guardian, in the case of children), Kelso said. Based on that interview, state officials determine whether the person was at a school while they were infectious. 

But parents or guardians may be more inclined to speak to their local school staff than state officials, meaning schools may get better information about how many students are infectious while at school.  

Parents may also report positive cases to schools before they report to the state, Kelso said. 

“The bottom line is, the schools probably have more complete and accurate information than the health department does,” she said. “I would always defer to the school nurse and school staff for having the best information about what’s happening in the school.” 

An Agency of Education spokesperson referred comment to the health department.

Often, the discrepancy between the state and local COVID data is minimal, with a gap of only one or two cases. But in some schools, the differences are dramatic. 

School officials at Enosburg Falls Middle School and Enosburg Falls High School, which share a building, reported a combined total of 23 cases from both schools.

State officials, meanwhile, recorded nearly half that — 13 cases — from the combined schools.

In the Franklin Northeast Supervisory Union, state officials recorded 95 cases in total, over all the district’s 10 schools. 

District officials, however, recorded 143 cases of infectious positives — nearly 50 more than the state.

Lynn Cota, the Franklin Northeast superintendent, said she was aware of the discrepancies. 

“I just have a wonder about, could we simplify this process for nurses a little bit, because we're seeing so many more cases?” Cota said. 

In the seven schools in the Caledonia Central Supervisory Union, state data reports 37 cases so far this year. 

But according to data provided by the superintendent, the supervisory union has recorded a total of 86 cases this year so far — more than twice the state’s figures. 

That includes Twinfield School, which had a discrepancy of 10 cases, and Danville School, which had a discrepancy of 16. 

In Winooski, school officials logged 15 cases across the district’s three schools since the beginning of the semester. The state list reports only six, however. 

Liz Parris, a Winooski school nurse and co-coordinator of the district’s pandemic response, said in an email that school officials have spent over 200 hours this year contact-tracing. 

“I know health department staff have also needed to take on many additional responsibilities during the pandemic as well,” Parris said. "In my opinion, the reporting process should be streamlined and more closely coordinated if we want to reduce the data discrepancy between what’s being reported to our district and what’s being reported by the state." 

Last academic year, school officials had the option of leaning on state health department staff when handling contact tracing in schools. This year, however, schools are effectively on their own. 

Health department officials will send schools lists of possible close contacts, according to Kelso, the state epidemiologist, but schools must do all the tracing themselves. 

In an interview, Jeffrey Francis, executive director of the Vermont Superintendents Association, emphasized the importance of accurate data, but said he believes that “everyone’s doing the best they can.” 

“The state uses data in order to illustrate both the nature of the challenges and its own decision-making,” Francis said. “School districts use data (in) real time, in terms of their operational decisions, with respect to how they deal with students and communities.”

Not all districts are worried about the numbers. In the Central Vermont Supervisory Union, Superintendent Matthew Fedders expressed little concern about the discrepancies in his district. 

Fedder’s district includes Orange Center School, in which local officials recorded 16 cases, compared to the state’s 11. 

But it also includes Northfield Middle and High School, in which state officials reported eight cases — three higher than the local number. 

“We really have kept ourselves busy with contact tracing and getting test-to-stay up and running,” Fedders said in an email. “Correcting the numbers the state is reporting is not our priority.”